Satellite Image
Satellite image for 5:32 a.m., 15 January 2014/ PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines – As of 4:00 AM today, The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts the Low Pressure Area (LPA), based on all available data,  at 100 km East of Borongan, Eastern Samar (11.5°N 126.4°E) while  Northeast Monsoon or Amihan are affecting Northern and Central Luzon.

Meanwhile, the regions of Bicol, Eastern and Central Visayas, Caraga and Northern Mindanao will experience cloudy skies with moderate to occasionally heavy rainshowers and thunderstorms, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

On the other hand, Calabarzon, Mimaropa, Western Visayas and the rest of Mindanao will have cloudy skies with light to moderate rainshowers and thunderstorms while Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will be cloudy with isolated light rains..
The weather bureau said that moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will be experienced over Luzon and Visayas and coming from the northeast to northwest over Mindanao while the coastal waters throughout the archipelago will be moderate to rough.

According to PAGASA’s 24-hour forecast and extended weather outlook issued on Tuesday, Metro Manila and several cities including Baguio, Tagaytay, Puerto Princesa, Legazpi, Cebu and Zamboanga will have either cloudy skies with rainshowers or thunderstorms or cloudy skies with rains until January 18, Saturday.
The typhoon-ravaged area, which is Tacloban City, will have partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms on Saturday.

PAGASA also issued gale warning as strong to gale force winds associated with the surge of Northeast Monsoon, which is expected to affect the seaboards of Northern Luzon, eastern seaboard of Central Luzon, the seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboard of Visayas.

“Fishing boats and other small sea craft are advised not to venture out into the sea while larger sea vessels are alerted against big waves,” PAGASA stated.

Moreover, the LPA that has been dumping heavy rains in Mindanao was last located at 60 kilometers north of Butuan City in Tuesday morning.

Predicted Mean Sea Level Pressure
Predicted Mean Sea Level Pressure
Analysis for 8 a.m., 15 January 2014/ PAGASA

 

 

LPA unlikely to tropical cyclone

In an interview Monday afternoon, PAGASA weather forecaster Gener Quitlong said based on forecast models, the LPA would unlikely strengthen into a tropical cyclone.

Escullar said that the LPA will be stationary in position in the next two days as the northeast monsoon (Amihan) and high pressure area hinders its movement.

“Hindi favorable sa bagyo ang malamig na hangin. Ang kailangan ng isang bagyo para mag-intensify ay warm air. Pero may ipinapakita ang mga models namin na posibleng maging bagyo (Cold winds are not favorable to creating cyclones. Cyclones need warm air to intensify. However, some models show that it may become a typhoon,” she said.

In case it becomes a tropical depression, it will be locally codenamed “Agaton”, which will be the first cyclone to enter the country this year.

 

 

Predicted Mean Sea Level Wind
Predicted Mean Sea Level Wind
Analysis for 8 a.m., 15 January 2014/PAGASA